Good morning,
Here are a few of the things we’re watching and discussing as we head into another week of harvest.
What We’re Thinking About This Week
• Corn and soybeans remain rangebound—but Friday provided an important test.
Neither corn nor soybean futures has been able to break out of the sideways trading range that has developed over roughly the past 3½ weeks.
Friday provided a significant test of the lower end of those ranges. Both markets experienced early selling pressure, but intraday price action fought back and prevented a meaningful breakdown.
For now, the range remains intact.
That doesn’t tell us which direction the eventual breakout will occur, but the longer a market spends consolidating, the more interested we become in what eventually provides the catalyst to move it.
• Cycle of Weeks suggests we’re entering an important timing window.
The Cycle of Weeks Second Crest appears to have been well placed on September 2 in corn and September 11 in soybeans.
Both markets have now entered the window of time in which we’re searching for the next trough. However, neither market has shown enough price commitment or conviction to set in motion the search for a qualifying Second Trough Structure.
That’s an important distinction. The timing window is open, but price has yet to confirm it.
With the current cycle extending into October, we’ll be watching closely for price action that begins to provide that confirmation—particularly as both markets continue testing the boundaries of their recent trading ranges.
• Wednesday’s Quarterly Grain Stocks report could provide a catalyst.
USDA will release its Quarterly Grain Stocks report Wednesday, measuring corn, soybean and other grain inventories in all positions as of September 1.
For corn and soybeans, the September 1 stocks number effectively closes the books on the 2025/26 marketing year and establishes the carry-in for the new crop year.
Our work with quarterly disappearance suggests there is potential for the 2025 corn and soybean crops to ultimately be revised lower.
If that happens, the implications extend beyond the old crop. A smaller old-crop supply ultimately means a smaller carry-in to the 2026/27 balance sheet. All else being equal, fewer beginning stocks also trickle down to a smaller projected carryout for the 2026 crop.
That’s why this report deserves our attention. After several weeks of sideways trade, Wednesday could provide an important piece of fundamental information capable of influencing price direction over the next 30–60 days.
• Harvest information remains incomplete.
Early yield reports continue to be mixed, while wet weather across portions of the western Corn Belt has slowed harvest progress and delayed some of the actual production information we’re waiting for.
That means we’re still replacing preseason production estimates with known production relatively slowly.
Continue keeping your FWS Account Manager updated as combines roll. Your actual production remains one of the most important pieces of information we have for determining your current marketed percentage and managing the remaining crop.
• Soybean basis continues to look better than corn basis.
Year-over-year national soybean basis remains firmer, while national corn basis is roughly in line with year-ago levels.
We’ll continue monitoring both as harvest progresses.
For grain committed to harvest delivery, continue evaluating and establishing basis as required by your processor or end user. For bushels moving into storage or later delivery periods, we’ll evaluate basis alongside carry and the economics of holding the grain.
• Our marketing approach hasn’t materially changed.
We’re comfortable allowing the futures market to continue working within its current range while knowing where our next decisions are located.
For soybeans, we’re looking to advance toward 70% marketed if additional strength carries the market above the recent $13.35 highs.
For corn, we’re looking to advance toward 60% marketed on additional strength above the recent $5.49 high.
Refer to the latest Market Plan email for the specific decision levels we’re monitoring.
A breakout isn’t the only information that matters.
If the markets retest those highs but are met with resistance rather than breakout strength, we’ll treat that as useful information as well. Depending on the individual client’s position, that could lead us to advance sales or hedges—or escalate risk-management strategies using long puts or combination strategies to better insulate the downside.
Where Our Attention Is Focused
This is a week where we want to be prepared rather than predictive.
We have defined trading ranges. We’re entering an important Cycle of Weeks timing window. We have a potentially significant USDA report approaching. And we already know where we want to make our next marketing decisions.
If the market breaks higher, we’re prepared to use that strength.
If it challenges the highs and fails, we’re prepared to respond to that information.
If price begins confirming a trough structure, we’ll incorporate that into our thinking.
And if Wednesday’s report changes the fundamental picture, we’ll evaluate whether the existing plan needs to change with it.
Grain Marketing Thought
A trading range is a period of information gathering, not inactivity.
For nearly a month, corn and soybean futures have moved mostly sideways. It can feel like nothing is happening.
But during that time, we’re learning.
We’re seeing actual harvest results. We’re watching basis. We’re monitoring spreads and carry. We’re observing how buyers and sellers respond at the edges of the trading range. We’re watching our timing cycles develop. And this week we’ll receive another significant piece of fundamental information from USDA.
We don’t need to force a decision while the market is undecided.
We do need to know what we’re going to do when it decides.
Have a great week,
Ron Wall
Flat Water Solutions, LLC